BC Housing Market Forecast: TD Predicts Continued Weakness and Price Declines

What this means for you: If you own a home in British Columbia, your property value may stay flat or drop in the near future. If you are trying to buy a home, you will face less competition but very few options, as new housing supply has hit a record low.

TD Economics has released a new report identifying British Columbia as one of the weakest housing markets in Canada. They cite "persistent housing headwinds" and strained affordability as the main reasons for the downturn.

The report suggests that many potential buyers are staying on the sidelines, waiting for prices to hit a bottom. This behavior has forced TD to downgrade its forecasts for both sales and price growth in the province.

The Current Numbers (February 2026)

Recent data shows the BC market is cooling down much faster than expected. Here are the specific figures from the report:

Sales are down: Residential sales in BC dropped by 9.7% compared to the previous year.
Total units sold: There were only 4,500 units sold in February 2026.
Below average: This sales figure is 33% lower than the 10-year average.
Supply crisis: New housing supply has hit a historic low. In Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, only 64 new presale units were launched in February 2026.
Supply context: Historically, the average for new presale units in this region is over 1,100 units.

While TD predicts a potential rebound in 2027 due to improving economic conditions, the immediate outlook is for continued weakness.

Who is Affected

Current Homeowners: You may see the value of your home stagnate or decline over the next year. If you are planning to refinance or sell soon, you should manage your expectations regarding equity.
Home Buyers: You face a difficult mix of problems. While there are fewer buyers competing against you, there is also almost no new inventory to buy.
Real Estate Investors: The low sales volume and dropping prices make this a high-risk environment for investment properties relying on appreciation.

What You Should Do

If you own a home:

Don't panic: Real estate is generally a long-term investment. TD predicts a rebound by 2027.
Review your budget: If you have a variable-rate mortgage coming up for renewal, ensure you can handle payments if your home value is assessed lower than expected.

If you are buying:

Get pre-approved: Markets can change quickly. Secure your financing now so you are ready to act if the right home appears.
Watch the "Presale" market: With only 64 units launched in February, new builds are incredibly rare. If you want a new home, you must be ready to buy immediately when a project launches.
Focus on affordability: Affordability remains the biggest hurdle. Ensure your monthly housing costs are sustainable, even if prices drop further.

Bottom Line

The BC housing market is currently one of the weakest in Canada. Sales are down significantly compared to historical averages, and developers have essentially stopped launching new projects. While this might eventually lead to price corrections that help buyers, the immediate future offers low inventory and flat prices.