Trump Threatens to Exit USMCA: What It Means for Canadian Gas Prices and Jobs
Key impact: If President Donald Trump follows through on his threat to exit the USMCA trade agreement, Canadian drivers could see higher gas prices and thousands of energy sector jobs could be at risk.
The USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) is up for its first six-year review in July 2026. Trump has signaled he may not renew it, claiming the U.S. doesn't need Canadian or Mexican goods. But experts warn this could backfire — especially for Canadian oil exports.
What's at stake for Canadians
Canada exports billions of dollars in crude oil to the U.S. every year. Much of it goes to Midwest refineries that are designed to process heavy Canadian crude. If Trump imposes tariffs on that oil:
- Canadian oil producers would see lower profits
- Layoffs could follow in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland
- Investment in Canada's energy sector would likely drop
- Gas prices for Canadian drivers could rise
The impact wouldn't stop at the pump. A USMCA exit could disrupt supply chains for Canadian manufacturers and farmers, affecting everything from auto parts to agricultural products.
Who is affected
Energy sector workers — This is the most immediate risk. Alberta alone accounts for over 80% of Canada's oil production. Thousands of jobs in drilling, refining, and pipeline operations could be threatened.
Drivers across Canada — Higher costs for Canadian oil could trickle down to consumers. Provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland would feel it first, but price increases could spread nationwide.
Manufacturing and agriculture workers — The USMCA governs tariff-free trade for many goods beyond oil. Auto parts, lumber, dairy, and produce could all face new barriers.
Small business owners — If supply chains get disrupted, costs for imported goods and materials could rise.
What you should do
Monitor trade negotiations closely. The next round of U.S.-Mexico talks is scheduled for next week. Canada's trade minister has already urged all parties to renew the agreement.
If you work in energy, manufacturing, or agriculture: Consider diversifying your income or building up your savings. Job security in these sectors could become uncertain.
Prepare for potential price increases. Gas and imported goods could cost more. Budget accordingly.
Contact your MP. Voice your concerns about protecting Canadian jobs and trade stability. Public pressure matters.
Stay informed. Follow official government updates from Global Affairs Canada and the Office of the Prime Minister.
Bottom line
Trump's threat to exit the USMCA is serious for Canada. Our oil exports to the U.S. are vital — and tariffs would hurt Canadian producers, workers, and drivers. The July 2026 review deadline is still two years away, but negotiations are already heating up. Canadians should watch closely, prepare for possible price increases, and make their voices heard.